The Hill: Why a Trump victory in November is a virtual certainty


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The best predictive model known gives Donald Trump, who now
leads among “likely” voters in recent polls, an 87 percent chance
of being our next President, and so does Google Trends.

September 14, 2016

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The Hill: Why a Trump victory
in November is a virtual certainty

Winning “Primary Model” AND Google Trends agree:
It’s Donald Trump in 2016!

The Daily Walk with Miracles, September 14, 2016 updated 10:15 a.m., by Paul Evans, excerpt from Why a Trump victory in November is a virtual certainty, The Hill, Pundit’s blog, September 12, 2016, by Helmut Norpoth (bracketed material is mine). Video is The Primary Model Predicting Donald Trump Win, YouTube news video, September 3, 2016 — 6:51. Stand with Donald Trump and sign the petition to Uphold the U.S. Constitution!

LATEST NEWS: See Trump 5-Point Lead Over Clinton in Ohio: Bloomberg Poll, Bloomberg Politics, September 14, 2016, by Megan Murphy.

The Hill:

[The best predictive model of who will win the Presidential race in 2016] “is one that, with slight variations, has accurately predicted the winner of the popular vote in each of the last five presidential elections, ever since it was introduced in 1996.”

“Dubbed the ‘Primary Model,’ it puts much stock in using primary results to forecast the vote in the general election. It also takes advantage of a historical tendency of the electoral pendulum to swing back and forth between the two parties. Both factors favor Trump over Clinton in 2016.”

“Trump proved to be the stronger candidate in primaries, according to the metric used by the model, and the electoral pendulum is poised to swing back to the Republican side after two Democratic terms in the White House under Barack Obama. The Primary Model predicts that Trump will defeat Clinton by 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent of the two-party vote. It is 87-percent certain that he will be the next President.”

Read the full article here.

Donald Trump in the News

Watch Google Trends Predicting Trump Win, uploaded to YouTube August 27, 2016 — 4:01.

Also watch 6 Reasons Why Donald Trump Will Probably Win In November, YouTube opinion video, July 29, 2016 — 32:31.

See Bill Clinton’s CIA chief joins Trump campaign, The Hill, September 12, 2016, by Jonathan Easley: James Woolsey was Bill Clinton’s CIA Director from 1993 to 1995, and describes himself as a life-long Democrat.

See Krauthammer: Trump’s Child Care, Maternity Plan ‘Out-Democrats the Democrats’, NewsMax, September 13, 2016, by Cathy Burke. Watch Ivanka Trump on the importance of child-care reforms, Fox News video on YouTube, September 13, 2016 — 7:27.

See Icahn says Trump better for U.S. economy than Clinton, Reuters, September 13, 2016, by Michael Flaherty: Carl Icahn is a billionaire investor, and is one of those people in the world whose opinion matters.

See Trump up 2 points over Clinton in national poll, The Daily Walk with Miracles, September 6, 2016, by Paul Evans.

Also see Clinton Global Initiative Causes 1 Million Nigerian Homeless, The Daily Walk with Miracles, September 7, 2016, by Paul Evans.

Political joke from The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon: “Hillary was just diagnosed with pneumonia. And to everyone’s surprise, Trump has refused to attack her while she’s sick and even said that he hopes she feels better. At which point, people started asking Trump if he was feeling OK.” Paul Evans: Well, it’s an election issue, Hillary fainted before as Secretary of State at a function and people worry about personal health as a qualification to be President. Actually, I feel Trump’s behavior on this issue simply demonstrates what a fine man Trump really is, that he would, in fact, actually offer his “get well soon” wishes to his chief political enemy.

The Primary Model:
Donald Trump Will Win in 2016

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